In 2001, the AFL season opens with a blockbuster between recent premiers Essendon and North Melbourne. Both clubs boast multiple flags from the prior decade, fueling a fierce rivalry. Essendon’s lineup includes 16 players from their dominant 2000 grand final victory, as they unfurl their 16th premiership flag, matching Carlton’s record. Favorites for a 17th title after losing just six of 45 games, the Bombers embody peak contention alongside the Blues.
The landscape shifts dramatically over the next 25 years. No Gold Coast, GWS Giants, or Tasmania yet exist. Hawthorn, Sydney, and Geelong lag behind their future dominant forms. Brisbane, fresh from a Fitzroy merger, hides a looming dynasty. Essendon and Carlton, once powerhouse Victorian rivals with massive fanbases, endure the longest flag droughts in their histories—26 years for Essendon, 31 for Carlton. Their most significant clash since 2000? That year’s preliminary final.
10 Key Events Behind the Decline
2002: Carlton Loses Draft Picks in Salary Cap Breach
Carlton’s troubles begin with salary cap violations in 2000-2001, involving illegal payments to stars like Stephen Silvagni and Craig Bradley. After a wooden spoon season (3-19), the AFL strips picks 1, 2, 31, and 34 from 2002, plus all 2003 pre-season picks and early 2003 rounds. Finishing second-last in 2003 (4-18) nets a priority pick for Andrew Walker at No. 2, while the Bulldogs snag Adam Cooney at No. 1.
2002: Essendon Gutted by Salary Cap Shock
Post-2001 grand final loss, Essendon’s young list eyes contention. A misjudged 10% cap rise yields only 3%, creating a $600,000 shortfall. Coach Kevin Sheedy trades core 2000 premiership players Justin Blumfield, Chris Heffernan, and Blake Caracella after Damien Hardwick’s exit. By 2003, only 13 of 22 grand final players remain. Former assistant Robert Shaw later notes, “You share premierships, you share grand finals, you share trust and honesty and loyalty. Then you pick up a phone and sack them, and it was never the same.” Sheedy nearly quits.
2006: Matthew Lloyd’s Career-Altering Hamstring Tear
With nine 2000 grand final players left, captain Matthew Lloyd anchors Essendon at 28. He boots eight goals in round one’s win over Sydney, adds four in round two. Round three brings a severe hamstring injury, sidelining him for the year and eroding his mobility. Lloyd retires at 31.
2007: Essendon Botches Sheedy Transition
Sheedy’s final years yield inconsistent results: finals in 2004, then 8-3-10 wins. At 7-4 in 2007, Essendon announces no contract renewal mid-contention. Candidates include Neale Daniher and Damien Hardwick, whose PowerPoint flops in his interview. Then-CEO Peter Jackson recalls Hardwick “got a bit rattled.” Matthew Knights takes over, lasting three years until 2010.
2009: Carlton Trades Star Forward Brendan Fevola
Rebuilt with captain Chris Judd, No. 1 picks Marc Murphy, Bryce Gibbs, Matthew Kreuzer, and goal machine Brendan Fevola (89 goals, Coleman Medal). Fevola’s off-field issues peak at the Brownlow count, leading to a trade to Brisbane for Lachie Henderson and a pick (Kane Lucas).
2012: Carlton Dumps Brett Ratten for Mick Malthouse
Ratten delivers three straight finals (2009-11), including a 2011 win over Essendon. Sacked after 11 wins in 2012, Carlton hires Malthouse. His 52 games yield middling results: ninth in 2013 (finals via Essendon ban), 0-7 starts, public feuds. Sacked mid-2015 at 1-7. Malthouse later says, “the biggest disappointment of my coaching career is that I should have looked further into Carlton’s lack of forward thinking before I signed on.” Interim John Barker oversees a wooden spoon, drafting Jacob Weitering, Harry McKay, Charlie Curnow.
2013: Essendon’s Supplements Saga Erupts
Brownlow captain Jobe Watson and coach James Hird lead optimistic Bombers. Self-reported 2012 supplements issues trigger a four-year ordeal. AFL fines $2 million, bars finals (despite 14-8), strips picks. Hird suspends 12 months. CAS bans 34 players in 2016; Watson returns Brownlow. No 14-win season since.
2018: Joe Daniher’s Injuries Derail Essendon
Post-scandal, stars Dyson Heppell, Zach Merrett, and 2017 All-Australian Joe Daniher (65 goals) promise contention. Groin issues limit him to eight goals in seven games; osteitis pubis ends 2018. More injuries follow; trade request denied. Daniher plays 11 games in final three years, thrives at Brisbane (204 goals in 96 games, 2024 premiership).
2022: Essendon Sacks Ben Rutten Amid Clarkson Chase
Rutten reaches finals in 2021. A 7-15 slump in 2022 sparks board upheaval; new president Dave Barham eyes Alastair Clarkson (who joins North). Rutten coaches the finale, calls for unity, then gets axed. Review favors Brad Scott over Hird.
2025: Carlton President’s Scandal Clouds Progress
President Luke Sayers, elected 2021, reviews club, hires Brian Cook, Michael Voss. Voss nears grand final in 2023. A hacked lewd Twitter post prompts AFL clearance, but Sayers resigns. Carlton stumbles to 9-14, 11th.
Bonus: Repeated Draft Misses Haunt Both Clubs
Poor drafting undermines success. Carlton’s 10 top-five picks since 2003 yield All-Australians in only Murphy, Weitering, Walsh; busts like Sam Petrevski-Seton, Paddy Dow. Essendon’s top-20 picks (2000-2007) feature one All-Australian (Patrick Ryder, at Port). Six top-15 picks (2016-2022) under Adrian Dodoro flop, wasting primes and list spots.
