“Bear Bets” are real wagers that Chris “The Bear” Fallica is actually making.
College football conference championship weekend is going to be absolutely massive.
There are CFP 12-team bracket implications, a Heisman at stake in the Ohio State-Indiana matchup and some underdogs trying to keep up with the trend of winning this weekend.
Where am I putting my money on the upcoming slate?
Let’s take a look.
Last Week: 1-2
Season: 37-28-2
No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Indiana
Normally, I would have a tad of hesitation here, since Ohio State just invested everything to snap the losing streak vs. Michigan. And regardless of the result here, the Buckeyes will have a first-round bye, as they look to defend their title in the College Football Playoff. It’s been a while since Ohio State has won a Big Ten title, and while the game means everything to Indiana, when will they get another chance to go 13-0, win the Big Ten and enter the Playoff as the No. 1 team in the country? I think Ohio State’s defense will make it tough on Indiana to run because the Hoosiers have struggled running against the best opponents they have faced this season. OSU hasn’t allowed more than 16 points all year and will get its toughest test of the season this weekend. Ultimately, I think Caleb Downs & Co. get the job done.
PICK: Ohio State (-4) to win by more than 4 points
No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 9 Alabama
This has the potential to be a bit of a slog. In the second half against Georgia in the first meeting, Alabama saw its production drop dramatically. Georgia certainly figured some things out and the Bulldog defense is better now. And it’s not like Ty Simpson and the Bama offense has been playing its best football over the last month. On the flip side, Georgia seemed to struggle against a bad Georgia Tech defense after center Drew Bobo went out, and that could be problematic trying to block Tim Keenan and the Tide front.
PICK: First half Under 24.5 points scored by both teams combined
UNDERDOGS TO PLAY ON THE MONEYLINE
Last Week: 0-4, -4
Season: 23-36, +7.1
UNLV +180
Miami to make CFP +430
BEAR BYTES
In the last two years, underdogs have won 11 of the 19 conference championship games.
There have been 38 instances of a double-digit ‘dog in a Power 5 conference championship game. Those 38 have gone 4-34, with the last 26 ending up on the losing end. The last P5 double-digit ‘dog in a conference title game to win outright was Florida State over Virginia Tech in 2005.
Each of the last five since 2021 have failed to cover and were each decided by at least 20 points.
In the last three years, the average margin of victory in conference championship games is 17.5 PPG. Just five games have been decided by seven points or fewer, while more than half (15) have been decided by greater than 17 points and nine have been decided by at least 24 points.
Favorites of three points or fewer are 14-24 straight up (SU) in conference title games (3-11 in the last five years). Each of the last four short favorites in P5 Conference title games lost outright — Texas -2.5 vs. Georgia last year, SMU -2.5 vs. Clemson last year, Iowa State -1.5 vs. Arizona State last year and Louisville -1.5 vs. Florida State in 2023.
In the last 10 years, there have been 11 G5 conference title games with a short favorite of a field goal or less. Nine of the eleven lost outright.
Only one of the last eight ACC title games has been decided by single digits. That was Clemson’s 34-31 win over SMU last season. The previous seven were decided by an average of 28.4 PPG.
The last seven Big Ten Championship Games have been decided by an average of 20 PPG and only one was decided by single digits.
C-USA title games haven’t seen much defense lately. Each of the last four and six of the last seven have gone over the total, including going over a couple of games posted in the 70s.
Underdogs have won six of the last seven MAC title games outright, while each of the last six have gone under the total.
Chris “The Bear” Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, “The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!” Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.
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