Will Hill
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
In 2024, the NFC North had one of the more remarkable and unique seasons in NFL history.
Back in January, the Lions and Vikings, both 14-2, squared off in a game that not only decided the division but the 1-seed for the NFC Playoffs.
Heading into Week 17 at 14-2 is usually good for more than a wild card spot in the NFL.
Unfortunately for the Vikings, 2024 was not like most years.
Not only did we see 29 wins between the top-two teams, but 12-5 was only good enough for third place for the Green Bay Packers, as the NFC North was a dominant force in the regular season.
Why fans should slow down the Bears’ hype despite Caleb Williams’ preseason success
While the 17-game season yielded dominance for the NFC North, all three of its playoff teams lost in their first postseason game, with none of the games being particularly close. This season looks to be equally competitive within the division, as all four teams have reason for optimism, as well as a realistic shot to finish first.
The Lions have a projected Over/Under season win total of 10.5, and they are the +160 favorites to repeat as NFC North champs.
Duplicating a 15-win season is asking a lot — especially considering the loss of both coordinators, and a new-look offensive line, and a first-place schedule. Detroit was 7-2 last year in one-score games, but on the other hand, it has also had a ton of injuries, especially on defense.
Ultimately, six tough division games, as well as games against the Chiefs, Ravens, Eagles and Rams, is difficult enough to keep me away from betting on anything here, with a slight lean toward Under 10 wins.
The Green Bay Packers are listed at 9.5 for a projected win total, with +225 odds to win the division. I wish this number was a bit longer, but the Packers are my pick to win what is a very difficult division to bet and to handicap.
This time last year, the Packers were a popular pick to come out of the NFC. They were coming off of a season in which they won a playoff game decisively against the Cowboys, then lost a game they led most of the way against the 49ers in the divisional round. That was all with a young core of surrounding talent set to return.
While it’s hard to call a 12-5 team a disappointment, the Packers went just 2-6 against playoff teams a year ago and certainly didn’t take the leap some hoped for. But last year, the schedule was among the league’s toughest. This year, it’s less daunting and looks more forgiving than those of the other NFC North teams.
The Packers have to play the Ravens but avoid the Chiefs, Bills, and Eagles. This race is close enough that strength of schedule gives the Packers the nod.
Are the Vikings putting too much faith in QB J.J. McCarthy?
The Vikings have a win total of 9.5 and are +320 to win the NFC North.
After coming up just one game short of the division title and the best record in the conference last year, there are some red flags for possible regression. The Vikings were 9-1 in one-score games and just ninth in point differential despite the gaudy record, while collecting a league-best 33 turnovers last year.
Also, they face a brutal stretch of the season that includes a couple of overseas trips back to back, then games against the Eagles, Chargers, Lions, Ravens, Bears and Packers.
The Vikings are really good, but it will be asking a lot to win the division with this treacherous schedule.
The Bears are set at an Over/Under of 8.5 wins and are +550 to win the division. There is seemingly reason for optimism in the Windy City heading into the season.
Perhaps the right guy is finally in place, with rookie head coach Ben Johnson. The offensive line looks to be improved, and there is an influx of talent with the skill-position players, after the selections of rookies Colston Loveland and Luther Burden III.
Significant free agency money was spent on a defense that was 13th best in points per game allowed last year. Ultimately, this looks to be a very solid football team.
But do we trust quarterback Caleb Williams to elevate his game enough to get the double-digit plus wins likely needed to win the North?
I considered it, especially with the longest odds, but I still land on the Packers being the best bet. The talent is there, the pressure of last year’s expectations is removed, and the schedule is conducive to a run to a division title.
PICK: Packers (+225) to win the NFC North
Will Hill, a contributor on the Bear Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.
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