SAN FRANCISCO — That is the time to deliver on the rivals. The Dodgers are used to taking over challengers down the pennant stretch: the San Francisco Giants and San Diego Padres — and, in a earlier model of the Nationwide League West, the Atlanta Braves and Cincinnati Reds.
The ultimate two weeks of the common season are upon us. The Dodgers have one remaining head-to-head matchup that actually issues — and that collection begins Monday at Dodger Stadium, towards the Philadelphia Phillies.
The Phillies?
The Phillies haven’t been realigned into the NL West. Nevertheless, though the three division champions mechanically qualify for the playoffs, the 2 with one of the best data earn a bye into the division collection. The division champion with the third-best document — proper now, that might be the Dodgers — should play within the first spherical.
The Milwaukee Brewers, the presumed champions of the NL Central, boast one of the best document in baseball. The Phillies, the presumed champions of the NL East, lead the Dodgers by 4 ½ video games. The Dodgers have 13 video games to play.
The Dodgers obtained a bye and misplaced within the division collection in 2022. They obtained a bye and misplaced within the division collection in 2023. They obtained a bye and got here inside one recreation of elimination within the division collection in 2024. Would they be higher off not getting a bye and taking part in within the first spherical?
“There’s not a query in my thoughts that that doesn’t make sense,” Andrew Friedman, the Dodgers’ president of baseball operations, informed me final week. “It’s higher to your World Sequence odds to not play these three video games.”
The 5 days off that include a bye can disrupt the timing of hitters. In addition they can enable time for injured and weary gamers to recuperate — that could possibly be important for Dodgers catcher Will Smith, specifically — and for the Dodgers to rearrange their beginning rotation simply the best way they could prefer it. And, after all, you’ll be able to’t be eradicated within the first spherical should you don’t play in it.
“Now we have made our life tougher so far,” Friedman stated, “however I nonetheless assume now we have a very good run in us, and we’ll make it aggressive. So clearly these three video games towards Philly are actually necessary in that.”
What if the three video games towards the Phillies go poorly?
Even when they don’t, the Dodgers won’t win the division. The Padres are nearer to the Dodgers than the Dodgers are to the Phillies.
San Diego trails the Dodgers by 2½ video games within the NL West.
If the Padres win the NL West, how a lot would that damage the Dodgers’ possibilities of a prolonged postseason run?
Not a lot, if in any respect. Each groups virtually definitely would find yourself within the wild-card spherical.
The NL West champion would play the final group into the NL discipline, almost certainly the Giants or New York Mets and perhaps even the Reds or Arizona Diamondbacks, with the possibility the opponent exhausted its pitching simply to get into the playoffs. The opposite group would play the Chicago Cubs, and would keep away from the potential for dealing with the surging Phillies till the NLCS.
If the NL West comes all the way down to the final day or two, the Dodgers must decide whether or not to make use of their greatest starters on that closing weekend or line them up for the wild-card collection.
In that situation, what is likely to be the decisive issue within the Dodgers’ calculus?
The NL West champion would play all three video games of the wild-card spherical at residence; the runner-up probably would play all three video games on the highway. The Dodgers are 48-26 at residence, 36-39 on the highway. (The Padres are 47-28 at residence, 35-40 on the highway.)
Would there be any precedent for the Dodgers not minding if the Padres gained the NL West?
In 1996, the Dodgers and Padres had been tied for the NL West lead heading into the ultimate day of the common season, with the 2 groups dealing with each other. Each groups had been assured a playoff spot.
In Sport 162, the Dodgers began Ramon Martinez — undefeated in his earlier 9 begins — then eliminated him after one inning.
The Padres gained the sport, and with it the division. The Dodgers began Martinez of their playoff opener three days later. They misplaced that recreation, and so they had been swept within the collection by the Braves. The successful pitchers in that collection, so as: John Smoltz, Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine.
What number of video games are the Dodgers on tempo to win?
Ninety-one.
In Friedman’s earlier 10 seasons operating the Dodgers, what’s the fewest variety of video games they’ve gained?
Ninety-one, in 2016.
How did the Dodgers do this October?
They earned a bye into the division collection, by which they beat the Washington Nationals. They misplaced to the Chicago Cubs within the league championship collection.
