Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
On July 27, gambling text message threads received a bombshell: Colorado head coach Deion Sanders would step down.
He would do so the following morning during his scheduled press conference where he would give the public an update on his health. Sharp groups hammered the Colorado win total from 6.5 at -180ish — a hefty price — down to a consensus 5.5 games.
But the information turned out to be incorrect.
Coach Prime announced he had bladder cancer that required surgery and now he’s cancer-free. A positive result considering the circumstances, and Sanders announced he’d still be on the sidelines for his Buffaloes this season.
I wrote weeks ago that I liked Colorado under 6.5 wins as one of my favorite win total wagers of the 2025 season. Does that change now that Colorado is sitting at 5.5 wins? If you tailed me, should you buy some Over 5.5 for a middle at six wins?
The Buffs return only six starters from their nine-win team last season. They lost Shedeur Sanders, their quarterback. They lost their Heisman-winning receiver and cornerback, Travis Hunter. The Buffs also lost their top four wide receivers.
The CU defense improved more than 50 spots in efficiency rankings but lost a number of key pieces. It replaced all these players with more transfer portal additions, but how many times can Colorado hit a home run with portal players?
It’s just not a proven path to continued success in this sport.
Colorado will need these portal players to win. It will need production from a new quarterback, receivers, four offensive linemen, the entire linebacker corps and multiple secondary players for a chance to succeed this season.
It seems untenable for Deion & Co. to have the same success this season that they had in 2024. This is a new offense that can’t be bailed out by Sanders or Hunter. It’s stagnant. There’s no motion. There’s no variation in formations. The offense doesn’t use a tight end and it doesn’t run the football.
Is CU going to change the offense now that Sanders is no longer the quarterback? I’m doubtful.
The defense improved greatly last season, but this year, that unit will rely on its returning defensive-line depth, mixed with all new linebackers.
The team just isn’t as talented this season.
Colorado’s conference schedule in 2025 is much harder than it was in 2024. The Buffaloes faced six of the seven Big 12 teams to finish under .500 in conference play last year. They play five of the seven favorites to win the league, plus a trip to West Virginia later in the year when it’s possible the Moutaineers have it together with Rich Rod. CU also hosts Georgia Tech in Week 1 and I don’t believe it will win that game.
I think Under 5.5 is still a play if you missed out on the 6.5. I’m not going to try to middle on six, and I’m fine with sitting on my Under 6.5.
PICK: Colorado Under 6.5 wins
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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