After experiencing one of many wettest vacation seasons on file, nonetheless soggy California hit a serious milestone this week — having zero areas of irregular dryness for the primary time in 25 years.
This information, collected by the U.S. Drought Monitor, is a welcome nugget of stories for Golden State residents, who within the final 15 years alone have lived by two of the worst droughts on file, the worst wildfire seasons on file and probably the most damaging wildfires ever.
Proper now, the wildfire danger throughout California is “about as near zero because it ever will get,” and there may be seemingly no want to fret in regards to the state’s water provide for the remainder of the yr, mentioned UC local weather scientist Daniel Swain. At present, 14 of the state’s 17 main water provide reservoirs are at 70% or extra capability, in accordance with the California Division of Water Assets.
California’s final drought lasted greater than 1,300 days, from February 2020 to October 2023, at which level simply 0.7% of the state remained abnormally dry due to a collection of winter atmospheric rivers that showered the Golden State with rain.
Previous to that, California was in a record-breaking drought cycle from December 2011 to September 2019.
However the final time 0% of the California map had any stage of abnormally dry or drought circumstances was all the way in which again in December 2000. In current weeks, a collection of highly effective winter storms and atmospheric rivers have swept throughout California, dumping heavy rain that soaked soils, crammed reservoirs and left a lot of the state unusually moist for this time of yr.
“That is definitely a much less damaging climate winter than final yr was and than lots of the drought years have been, so it’s OK to take that breather and to acknowledge that, proper now, issues are doing OK,” mentioned Swain. He famous, nevertheless, that “as we transfer ahead, we do anticipate to be coping with more and more excessive [weather] swings.”
Although it might appear counterintuitive, local weather change is forecast to result in each extra intense droughts and extra intense episodes of rainfall. It’s because a hotter ambiance pulls extra moisture out of soils and crops, deepening droughts. On the similar time, a hotter ambiance holds extra water vapor, which is then launched in fewer, extra excessive rainstorms.
Scientists have coined a reputation for this phenomenon — the atmospheric sponge impact — which Swain mentioned is “hopefully an evocative visible analogy that describes why because the local weather warms we truly are more likely to see wider swings between extraordinarily moist circumstances and intensely dry circumstances.”
A key instance of this impact is the climate sample within the run-up to the devastating Palisades and Eaton fires.
In 2022 and 2023, California skilled extraordinarily moist winters. Mammoth Mountain, for instance, set an all-time file for snowfall within the 2022-23 season.
However then Southern California skilled one of many driest intervals on file within the fall and winter of 2024, which enabled the following devastation of January 2025’s firestorm.
“We didn’t even need to be in a notable multi-year drought to have that sequence of actually moist to actually dry circumstances lead us to a spot the place the hearth danger was catastrophic,” mentioned Swain.
Analysis revealed within the aftermath of the hearth examines how this extraordinarily moist to extraordinarily dry climate sequence is particularly harmful for wildfires in Southern California as a result of heavy rainfall results in excessive progress of grass and brush, which then turns into considerable gasoline in periods of utmost dryness.
Happily, California must be away from water provide dangers and wildfire hazard for a number of months to come back, however in the long run, residents ought to anticipate to see extra of this climate whiplash, Swain mentioned.
