Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
The world champion Philadelphia Eagles are aiming to do what only two NFL franchises have accomplished since the turn of the century.
That, of course, is winning back-to-back Super Bowls.
Tom Brady and Bill Belichick’s New England Patriots pulled off the historic feat in the 2003 and 2004 seasons, while Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid’s Kansas City Chiefs recently ran it back in 2022 and 2023.
That’s it.
Philadelphia kept a ton of its core intact, but every champion goes through offseason subtractions. Offensive lineman Mekhi Becton, pass rushers Josh Sweat and Milton Williams, and cornerbacks Darius Slay and Isaiah Rodgers all left in free agency.
Eagles lifer Brandon Graham retired, too.
Nick Sirianni also lost offensive coordinator, designer and playcaller Kellen Moore, who took a head coaching job with the New Orleans Saints.
Got all that?
The Eagles remain one of the most talented teams in the NFL, per Las Vegas oddsmakers, and they’re right near the top of Super Bowl betting boards at every sportsbook. But their depth just ain’t what it used to be. And life’s different at the top because you’re prone to catch other teams’ best shots.
“The league is set up for parity,” Westgate SuperBook vice president of race and sports John Murray told me from his Vegas office.
“It’s very difficult to repeat and the only teams who’ve done it had first ballot Hall of Famers at head coach and quarterback. There’s very little separating the top teams every season and so many of the recent playoff games and Super Bowl have come down to the final play or two.
“I’m sure the league and TV networks like it that way.”
Parity or not, the Eagles remain formidable. They’re my third-highest power-rated team in the NFL and are still good enough to fly “Over” 11.5 wins. That’s because most of their high-octane offensive talent is back in the mix.
Star running back Saquon Barkley surged for 2,005 yards and 13 touchdowns on the ground and added another 278 yards and two scores through the air. He’s currently favored to win Offensive Player of the Year at around 6/1.
One could wonder, though, is it smart to try and repeat that? Between the regular season and postseason, Barkley touched the ball 482 times.
Sheesh.
“They’ll have to do something about Saquon and the potential wear and tear on his body,” Murray said. “He’s such a valuable asset for them. We’ve seen it before with running backs. Even the great ones eventually fall off a cliff.”
If Philadelphia wants to be the first NFC East team to win back-to-back divisional crowns in 20 years, they’ll have to hold off a rising Washington Commanders squad with budding star quarterback Jayden Daniels and an aggressive front office that believes last year was no fluke.
The Commanders might live to spoil the party.
“I think so, too,” Murray admitted. “It’s been a tumultuous offseason in Dallas and they have all new coaches. New York isn’t a realistic threat to compete. It really comes down to Philadelphia and Washington. The Commanders have a solid front office, good staff and a potential superstar quarterback.
“The focus there is putting Daniels in a position to take the next step. If it all works out, it wouldn’t shock me if they won the division.”
At the end of the day, it’s difficult to get excited about betting last year’s Super Bowl champion to do big things the following year. Every bettor knows they’re legit, and every bookmaker knows there’s an appetite to bet ‘em.
Value is almost non-existent.
As someone who was gobbling up Philly stock last summer, I find myself staying away this season. The Birds were 7/1 to win the NFC and 15/1 to win the whole enchilada last August. Their current prices are half that.
Thanks, but no thanks.
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and the BetMGM Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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