For those who informed me proper now that Arizona, Michigan, Duke and Iowa State will wind up because the 4 No. 1 seeds of the 2026 NCAA Event, not solely would I agree, I’d in all probability heckle you for the lukewarm take.
Actually going out on a limb there, choosing the 4 undefeated groups that occupy Nos. 1-4 within the AP ballot! Do you want UConn on the ladies’s facet too?
However sarcasm apart, there’s a motive why that quartet has risen to its personal tier on the prime. Each a kind of 4 groups could make a case for the very best crew within the nation, and all of them earned first-place votes — even Iowa State, the varsity least related to basketball greatness traditionally.
The coaches’ ballot picked Michigan over Arizona by a mere 13 factors, whereas Duke has discovered its technique to the highest of some energy rankings.
What units every of those groups other than the opposite? Because you’re going to be listening to way more about them all through the season, let’s power-rank the Blue Devils, Wolverines, Wildcats and Cyclones and resolve the true No. 1 six weeks into the season. (For Iowa State’s sake, let’s not use mascots as a class in our story of the tape. Creepy Cy the Cardinal belongs on a distinct type of checklist.)
4. Iowa State
Dec 6, 2025; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Iowa State Cyclones ahead Milan Momcilovic (22) dribbles the ball through the first half towards the Purdue Boilermakers at Mackey Area. Obligatory Credit score: Jacob Musselman-Imagn Photographs The case for Iowa State: One doesn’t merely stroll into Mackey Area and pulverize a veteran Purdue squad. However that’s what Iowa State did final week, inflicting 15 turnovers and scoring 34 factors within the paint to dethrone the earlier No. 1 crew. The Cyclones have additionally developed lately from a serviceable offensive crew to a fairly good one to the very best capturing crew within the nation — first in discipline objective share and third on 3-pointers.
The case towards: Earlier than the Purdue sport, Iowa State’s most spectacular win was by one level on a impartial ground towards St. John’s. And extra consistency can be nice. What occurred the opposite night time at house towards rival Iowa? Giving up greater than 50% from the ground and trailing by double digits earlier than needing a comeback? The Cyclones might keep unbeaten into mid-January, however we will do higher.
3. Arizona
Dec 6, 2025; Tucson, Arizona, USA; Arizona Wildcats ahead Koa Pea (10) dunks the ball through the second half of the sport towards the Auburn Tigers at McKale Memorial Middle. Obligatory Credit score: Aryanna Frank-Imagn Photographs The case for Arizona: Via eight video games, half the Wildcats’ win have come towards ranked power-conference groups, three of these have been away from Tucson, and 6 completely different gamers have led Arizona in scoring. These are indicators of a well-rounded crew. They dominate the boards, they usually’re fourth nationally in discipline objective share.
The case towards: Of the 4 groups we’re inspecting, Arizona lags within the metrics. They’re behind the others in KenPom, in KenPom protection, in Bart Torvik’s T-Rank, and in wins above bubble. In permitting 67.1 factors per sport, they haven’t shut groups down the best way you’d like. The Wildcats have one other probability to show their worthiness of the highest spot towards No. 12 Alabama on Saturday night time in Birmingham.
2. Duke
Dec 6, 2025; East Lansing, Michigan, USA; Duke Blue Devils guard Caleb Foster (1) dribbles previous Michigan State Spartans guard Divine Ugochukwu (99) through the first half at Jack Breslin Pupil Occasions Middle. Obligatory Credit score: Dale Younger-Imagn Photographs The case for Duke: It’s Duke. You’re going to say no to Duke? That’s like saying Notre Dame soccer can’t get automated entry to the playoff — by no means thoughts.
The Blue Devils have changed Cooper Flagg with Cameron Boozer and gone on their method, amassing main wins: Kansas at MSG, Arkansas in Chicago, Florida at house and Michigan State at their place. Such a schedule hasn’t stopped Duke from posting a D1-best 34.1 FG% allowed, only a shade higher than Michigan…
The case towards: Loopy as it’s to say, Duke’s received the least environment friendly offense of this group by a mile, going by capturing share at the least. Boozer leads them in most main classes and has a super-high utilization charge, to the purpose the place you marvel how the Blue Devils would fare if he’s on the bench in foul bother throughout a detailed sport.
1. Michigan
The case for Michigan: This the place the metrics, the coaches and the typical viewer can all come to an settlement. The Wolverines outstrip No. 2 Iowa State by greater than 3.5 factors in KenPom’s adjusted effectivity scores. Dusty Might has collected a number of terrific scoring choices in and out, beginning with rising star Yaxel Lendeborg, they usually defend about in addition to Michigan. They defend about in addition to Duke, main them to outshoot their opponents by a margin of 17.7 share factors.
The case towards: Despite the fact that they’re additionally No. 1 in power of file and Torvik’s Wins Above Bubble calculation, you may ask who the Wolverines have overwhelmed relative to Duke. Didn’t they simply run up the rating on Auburn and Gonzaga on the Gamers Period? However Michigan simply hasn’t slowed down, constructing 25- and 30-point halftime leads towards Rutgers and Villanova this previous week. I wouldn’t stand in Michigan’s method till I see that crew journey up with my very own eyes.
