Will Hill
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
Underdogs are everyone’s favorites.
With both the college football and NFL seasons underway, each week we’re going to take a look at which underdogs I like most before the pigskin begins.
Let’s check out my picks for Week 5 of the college football season and Week 4 of the NFL season.
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No. 22 Notre Dame @ Arkansas
I was torn between Arkansas-Memphis and Florida-Miami for my upset game last week. Unfortunately, I opted to go with the punch-less Gators, who hung around against the Hurricanes but couldn’t win or cover the number Saturday night.
Even though I was looking to bet against Arkansas last week, this week I’m actually on board with them.
Two weeks in a row now, Arkansas was driving to win the game, or at least take a very late lead. And against both Ole Miss and Memphis, Arkansas fumbled late to seal its fate and lose both contests. If Arkansas doesn’t fumble, or even if the Razorbacks recover those fumbles, it’s possible they come into this game against Notre Dame at 4-0 and would not be catching six points like they are now as a 2-2 team.
The Fighting Irish got their first win of the season against overmatched Purdue last week. However, they’ve shown enough flaws defensively this season to make me believe Arkansas can move the ball effectively, especially through the air.
Two weeks ago, we saw the Irish get carved up by an SEC team, as Texas A&M threw for 360 yards and put up 41 points. Has Notre Dame shown enough to warrant laying six on the road against another SEC team here in Arkansas?
I’ll gladly take points in what I expect to be a close game. But don’t be surprised if Notre Dame trips up again and falls to 1-3.
PICK: Arkansas (+6) to lose by fewer than 6 points or win outright
Titans @ Texans
Ugh, I regret this already!
The Titans have been kryptonite for those of us that like to bet on underdogs, going a remarkable 3-17 against the spread (ATS) in their last 20 games and an impossible 0-10 ATS in home games since the start of 2024.
Well, at least this game is on the road and getting seven points is a lot, considering the Titans are facing a Texans team that is 0-3 and struggling mightily on offense.
The Texans also might be without star cornerback Derek Stingley, whose status is unclear for Sunday as he nurses an oblique injury. As bad as the Titans are (and they are bad), the Texans are averaging a league-worst 12.7 points per game through the first three weeks. Now they’re expected to win by more than a touchdown?
Be careful using the Texans in your survivor pools this week. The Titans led both the Broncos and Rams in the second half in the first two weeks before being embarrassed by the Colts.
Famous last words: I like the Titans.
PICK: Titans (+7) to lose by fewer than 7 points or win outright
Will Hill, a contributor on the Bear Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.
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