WASHINGTON — President Trump made historic beneficial properties with Latinos when he received reelection final yr, boosting Republicans’ confidence that their financial message was serving to them make inroads with a gaggle of voters who had lengthy leaned towards Democrats.
However on this week’s election, Democrats in key states had been capable of disrupt that rightward shift by gaining again Latino help, exit polls confirmed.
In New Jersey and Virginia, the Democrats working for governor made beneficial properties in counties with giant Latino populations, and total received two-thirds of the Latino vote of their states, in accordance with an NBC Information ballot.
And in California, a CNN exit ballot confirmed about 70% of Latinos voting in favor of Proposition 50, a Democratic redistricting initiative designed to counter Trump’s plans to reshape congressional maps in an effort to maintain GOP management of the Home.
The outcomes mark the primary concrete instance on the poll field of Latino voters turning away from the GOP — a shift foreshadowed by latest polling as their considerations in regards to the financial system and immigration raids have grown.
Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill celebrates with supporters after being elected New Jersey governor.
(Michael Nagle/Bloomberg by way of Getty Photographs)
If the development continues, it might spell hassle for Republicans in subsequent yr’s midterm elections, stated Gary Segura, a professor of public coverage, political science and Chicana/o research at UCLA. This might be very true in California and Texas, the place each events are banking on Latino voters to assist them choose up seats within the Home, Segura stated.
“A yr is a very long time in politics, however actually the vote on Prop. 50 is a really, superb signal for the Democrats’ potential to choose up the newly drawn congressional districts,” Segura stated. “I believe Latino voters will probably be actually instrumental within the consequence.”
Democrats, in the meantime, are feeling optimistic that their warnings about Trump’s immigration crackdown and a foul financial system are resonating with Latinos.
Republicans are questioning to what diploma the occasion can keep help amongst Latinos with out Trump on the ticket. In 2024, Trump received roughly 48% of the Latino vote nationally — a report for any Republican presidential candidate.
Some Republicans noticed this week’s traits amongst Latino voters as a “wakeup name.”
“The Hispanic vote isn’t assured. Hispanics married President Donald Trump however are solely relationship the GOP,” Republican Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar of Florida stated in a social media video the day after the election. “I’ve been warning it: If the GOP doesn’t ship, we are going to lose the Hispanic vote everywhere in the nation.”
Financial points a important driver
Final yr Trump was capable of leverage widespread frustration with the financial system to win the help of Latinos. He promised to create jobs and decrease the prices of residing.
However polling exhibits {that a} majority of Latino voters now disapprove of how Trump and the Republicans in command of Congress are dealing with the financial system. Half of Latinos stated they anticipated Trump’s financial insurance policies to go away them worse off a yr from now in a Unidos ballot launched final week.
In New Jersey, that sentiment was exemplified by voters like Rumaldo Gomez. He informed MSNBC he voted for Trump final yr however this week went for for the Democratic candidate for governor, Rep. Mikie Sherrill.
“Now, I take a look at Trump completely different,” Gomez stated. “The financial system doesn’t look good.”
Gomez added he’s “very unhappy” about immigration raids led by the Trump administration which have cut up up hardworking households.
Whereas Latino voters concern being affected by immigration enforcement actions, polling suggests they’re extra involved about price of residing, jobs and housing. The Unidos ballot confirmed immigration rating fifth on the record of considerations.
In New Jersey and Virginia, Democrats’ double-digit victories had been constructed on guarantees to scale back the price of residing, whereas blaming Trump for his or her financial ache.
Marcus Robinson, a spokesman for the Democratic Nationwide Committee, stated Democrats “expanded margins and flipped key counties by incomes again Latino voters who know Trump’s financial system leaves them behind.”
“These outcomes present that Latino communities need progress, not a return to chaos and damaged guarantees,” he stated.
Republicans see a special Trump subject
GOP strategist Matt Terrill, who was chief of workers for then-Sen. Marco Rubio’s 2016 presidential marketing campaign, stated the election outcomes usually are not a referendum on Trump.
Latino voters swung left as a result of Trump wasn’t on the poll, he stated.
Final yr “it wasn’t Latino voters turning out for the Republican occasion, it was Latino voters turning out for President Trump,” he stated. “Like him or not, he’s capable of hearth up voters that the Republican occasion historically doesn’t get.”
With Trump barred by the Structure from working for a 3rd time period, Republicans are left to surprise if they’ll get the Latino vote again when he isn’t on the poll. Terrill believes Republicans have to hammer on the difficulty of affordability as a high precedence.
Mike Madrid, a “by no means Trump” Republican and former political director of the California Republican Occasion, has a special idea.
“They’re abandoning each events,” Madrid stated of Latinos. “They deserted the Republican occasion for a similar causes they deserted the Democratic occasion in November: not addressing financial considerations.”
The financial system has lengthy been the highest concern for Latinos, Madrid stated, but each events proceed to border the Latino political agenda round immigration.
“Latinos aren’t voting for Democrats or Republicans — they’re voting towards Democrats and towards Republicans,” Madrid stated. “It’s a really large distinction. The partisans are all us as if we’re this peculiar unique little creature.”
The work forward
Democrat Abigail Spanberger was elected governor in Virginia partly due to large beneficial properties in Latino-heavy communities. One of many greatest beneficial properties was in Manassas Park, the place greater than 40% of residents are Latino. She received the town by 42 factors, doubling the Democrats’ efficiency there in final yr’s election.
The shift towards Democrats occurred as a result of Latinos believed Trump when he promised to deliver down excessive prices of residing and that he would solely go after violent criminals in immigration raids, stated Democratic strategist Maria Cardona, who labored with Spanberger’s marketing campaign on outreach to Spanish-language media.
As an alternative, she argued, Trump betrayed them.
Cardona stated Medicaid cuts beneath Trump’s huge spending package deal this yr, together with the discount of supplemental diet help amid the federal government shutdown, have Latinos households panicking.
“What Republicans misguidedly and mistakenly thought was a realignment of Latino voters simply turned out to be a blip,” she stated. “Latinos ought to by no means be thought of a base vote.”
Political scientists warning that the election outcomes this week usually are not essentially indicative of how races will play out a yr from now.
“It’s only one election, however actually the seeds have been planted for robust Latino Democratic turnouts in 2026,” stated Brad Jones, a political science professor at UC Davis.
Now, each events want to clarify how they count on to hold out their guarantees if elected.
“They’ll’t sit on their laurels and say, ‘properly absolutely the Latinos are coming again as a result of the financial system is dangerous and immigration enforcement is dangerous,’” Jones stated. “The job of the Democratic occasion is now to achieve out to Latino voters in methods which might be extra than simply symbolic.”
