One look on the Main League Baseball standings as Labor Day weekend begins suggests there received’t be a lot jockeying for postseason spots down the stretch.
Coming into play tonight, the Seattle Mariners lead the Kansas Metropolis Royals by three video games within the race for the ultimate American League wild card, and the New York Mets maintain a four-game benefit over the Cincinnati Reds within the dash for the final Nationwide League wild card.
This marks simply the fifth time because the wild card period started in 1995 that the groups occupying the final playoff spot in every league held a lead of a minimum of three video games over their nearest competitor by the video games of Aug. 28. (This excludes the 60-game 2020 pandemic season, when 16 groups made the playoffs.)
The schedule additionally appears to favor the Mariners, whose remaining opponents have a .479 successful proportion, and the Mets, whose upcoming foes have a .517 successful proportion. The Reds (.528 opponents’ successful proportion) and Royals (.513 opponents’ successful proportion) have the third- and eighth-toughest schedules remaining, respectively.
However … bizarre issues are inclined to occur over the ultimate few weeks of the baseball season.
There have been simply three seasons within the wild card period by which no one climbed into the playoff subject after Aug. 28. Fifteen groups within the wild card period have made the playoffs after being a minimum of three video games out of a playoff spot on Aug. 28 — together with final yr’s Mets and Detroit Tigers.
The one different seasons by which the final (or solely) wild card groups in every league held a three-game or bigger lead as of Aug. 28 additionally ended with somebody mounting a playoff surge.
The 1997 San Francisco Giants, 5 video games again of the wild card spot on Aug. 28, received the NL West. The 2011 Tampa Bay Rays had been 6 1/2 video games out within the wild card race however went 18-12 the remainder of the best way and overcame the free-falling Boston Purple Sox on the ultimate evening of the common season. Two years later, Cleveland was 4 video games out of the second wild card however ended up internet hosting the play-in sport following a 21-9 end.
Probably the most well-known sprints could have been the primary. In 1995, the Mariners made up a whopping 9 1/2 video games on the then-California Angels earlier than successful a one-game playoff for the AL West crown (hey Rob, give us again our tiebreaker video games). They superior to the AL Division Sequence in opposition to the New York Yankees, who leapfrogged 5 groups whereas overcoming a 4 1/2-game deficit within the wild card race.
The continuous enlargement of the playoff subject (in the event you don’t like 12 groups, wait till you see the inevitable 16-team match) doesn’t go away many Cinderella candidates. Solely 4 groups not at the moment in a playoff spot have a .500 or higher report — the Reds, Royals, Texas Rangers and Cleveland Guardians.
However this unusual season, by which the one noticeably good or unhealthy workforce is the Colorado Rockies (who someway have to win simply 5 extra video games to keep away from becoming a member of the 1962 Mets and final yr’s White Sox as trendy groups to endure 120 losses), additionally means it received’t take a lot to shake up the playoff race.
With that in thoughts, maybe we must always all control the Giants, who’ve received an NL-best 5 straight following a 7-19 skid to get inside two video games of the break-even mark at 66-68. Keep in mind, no one noticed the Mariners or Yankees coming 30 years in the past at this time, both.
