Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
If there were a weekend where doing nothing but watching college football on the couch was the plan, Week 5 would be it.
However, when it comes to the marquee matchups, I’m taking a slightly different approach.
Yes, I’ve got a pick on one of the week’s biggest contests, but I also am eyeing some that might be flying under the radar.
Let’s dive into it.
This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners. If you sign up or place a wager, FOX Sports may be compensated. Read more about Sports Betting on FOX Sports).
No. 6 Oregon @ No. 3 Penn State
It’s taken weeks to arrive and it’s here. This is the biggest game in the early part of the season in the Big Ten and the national title picture.
Oregon travels to Penn State on Saturday night for a White Out night game in Happy Valley. The Ducks are bringing a young team that’s playing well through four games. They only have eight starters in this game who played against Penn State in the Big Ten title game last season. The Nittany Lions are off a bye, they’re at home and the pressure is squarely on them to win.
In fact, I’d argue that Penn State must win this game.
James Franklin is 4-20 against top-10 teams at Penn State, and with the team’s stated goal of being a national title contender this season, they need this win to cement that idea.
I see this game mirroring the Georgia-Tennessee one from a few weeks ago, minus the 70 points. This one will be low-scoring, but the start of it will be the same. Penn State’s offense is going to throw everything it has at Oregon’s defense early. The Nittany Lions have had two weeks to prepare and Oregon just hasn’t faced an offense, offensive line and running back like Penn State’s.
Scheming up early successful passing plays will help the confidence of quarterback Drew Allar, who has missed on some easy throws so far this season.
This will be the first time that quarterback Dante Moore works with his offense in the noise. The offensive line has three new starters and Oregon plays multiple true freshman receivers. The Ducks offense is going to start slow, and I think it will be deliberate with its huddling and offensive operation, trying to weather the environment earl before picking up the pace later.
For these reasons, I like Penn State to win the first quarter.
PICK: Penn State (-135) to win first quarter
Houston @ Oregon State
The first college football wager I made this week was on the Houston Cougars at -12.5.
The number has moved to 13.5, and I’d gladly take that as well. Houston is 3-0 and off a bye. The Cougars are well-rested, with a defense that’s been excellent and an offense that’s seen improvement in every game. They’re seventh in points per drive on defense with their ability to limit big plays and rush the passer.
The best offense Houston has faced this season was Colorado, so it’s fair to question some of the data for long-term success. However, there are no questions about this Beavers offense — it is not good.
The Beavers are 128th in points per drive and 126th in rushing success efficiency. Their pass game is only slightly better, checking in at 87th in success rate. Their offense is 117th in pressure allowed.
You get the picture.
I’m not sure that Oregon State is going to score much, and if it can’t score at all, it is in for a world of hurt.
Oregon State’s defense also ranks 127th in points per drive. That unit has allowed a ton of explosive plays, which Houston hopes it can capitalize on. The Cougars offense has to play more efficiently, which I think will happen after this early-season bye. It has a chance to regroup and find the best way to attack.
Finally, there’s no home field advantage for the Beavers here. They are coming off a terrible loss to their rival. Houston will pounce on them.
PICK: Houston (-13.5) to win by more than 13.5 points
San Jose State @ Stanford
When there’s a game between two awful teams, I tend to like wagering on the one that has something reliable about its game.
The Stanford Cardinal can rush the football and that’s better than anything San Jose State can do. Stanford is 58th in rushing efficiency, with running back Micah Ford averaging almost five yards a carry. The Cardinal are 15th in yards per carry after contact, which bodes well against San Jose State’s rushing defense. Its overall numbers are decent for their 1-2 record, but it does not tackle well and will be open for play-action pass opportunities.
In other words, Stanford will relish the opportunity to play a defense like the Spartans.
Also, Stanford’s defense isn’t great but the San Jose State offense is brutal. There’s nothing it does well, and it turns the ball over too much. Eight turnovers in three games!
This is an ugly game that I doubt many are highlighting, so it’s a great spot to make some money.
PICK: Stanford (-2.5) to win by more than 2.5 points
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
Want great stories delivered right to your inbox? Create or log in to your FOX Sports account, and follow leagues, teams and players to receive a personalized newsletter daily!
What did you consider this story?
really helpful
Get more from the College Football Follow your favorites to get information about games, news and more
