Right this moment we talk about Texas, overreaction and the voluminous discipline of candidates for California governor.
Is there anybody who’s not operating for governor?
I’m not. And neither are my two cats. Not less than they weren’t as of this morning, once we mentioned the race earlier than breakfast.
That leaves us considerably in need of the 135 candidates who ran in California’s 2003 recall gubernatorial election. However not by a lot.
I depend practically a dozen severe candidates, with probably extra to return. Why so many?
Alternative.
That is probably the most wide-open race for California governor in a long time. By comparability, you’d have to return to a minimum of 1998, when Lt. Gov. Grey Davis surged previous a pair of moneybag candidates, Al Checchi and Rep. Jane Harman, within the Democratic major, then stomped Republican Atty. Gen. Dan Lungren in November to win the overall election.
Now, as then, there is no such thing as a one who even remotely resembles a prohibitive front-runner.
Polling within the governor’s race has proven former Democratic Rep. Katie Porter and Chad Bianco, Riverside County’s Republican sheriff, narrowly main the sphere. However with help for each within the middling 13%-to-21% vary, we’re not speaking a couple of pair of world-beaters.
Like nature, political ambition abhors a vacuum.
Talking of moneybags…
Tom Steyer!
Sure.
After making a bundle as a hedge fund supervisor, the San Francisco billionaire and environmental activist has been panting after public workplace for years. Working for president didn’t work out in 2020, even after Steyer spent greater than $345 million on his effort. (That’s near what the Dodgers spent on their 2025 payroll.)
So now Steyer is operating for governor, a transfer he appeared to telegraph by airing practically $13 million in self-promotional advertisements that, oh sure, supported passage of Proposition 50, the Democratic gerrymander initiative.
What are his probabilities?
Longtime readers of this column — each of you! — will know I make no predictions.
However California voters have by no means regarded favorably upon wealthy candidates making an attempt to make the leap from political civilian to the governorship or U.S. Senate. In actual fact, over the past 50-plus years, a gilded gallery of the well-to-do have tried and spectacularly failed.
Maybe Steyer will show the coverage chops or the razzle and dazzle all of them lacked. However his launch video definitely didn’t shatter any molds. Reasonably, it offered a stereotypical seize bag of redwood timber, potshots at Sacramento, multicultural photos of hard-working-everyday-folk, a promise to struggle, a pledge to construct extra housing and, in fact, a touch of profanity as a result of, gosh darn it, nothing says “unbridled authenticity” like a politician swearing!
Perhaps his fellow billionaire, Rick Caruso, will present extra creativity and creativeness if he will get into the governor’s race.
Not less than Democrats have been exhibiting indicators of life.
Certainly. Dare I say, the get together’s temper swing from near-suicidal to euphoric has been fairly one thing.
Profitable gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia — not by a little bit, however so much — and prevailing in down-ballot contests in Pennsylvania and Georgia had a remarkably transformative impact. (Zohran Mamdani’s mayoral victory in sky-blue New York Metropolis was no large shock as soon as the democratic socialist prevailed within the major.)
Actually in a single day, Democrats seized the momentum heading into the 2026 midterm election, whereas Republicans have begun scrambling to reposition their get together and recraft its messaging.
All that being mentioned, even earlier than their buoyant off-year efficiency these widespread stories of Democrats’ demise had been vastly … nicely, we’ll go away that Mark Twain chestnut alone. As analyst Charlie Prepare dinner factors out, 2024 was a deeply disappointing 12 months for the get together. Nevertheless it wasn’t a catastrophe.
Democrats gained two Home seats. There was no web change in any of the 11 gubernatorial races and legislative contests throughout 44 states resulted in one thing near a wash. The get together misplaced 4 Senate seats — and management of the chamber — however three of these losses got here within the crimson states of Montana, Ohio and West Virginia.
“This isn’t to argue that Democrats had a fantastic night time in November 2024, but it surely definitely wasn’t a bloodbath or a party-wide repudiation,” Prepare dinner wrote in a current posting. “If voters had meant to take it out on the get together as an entire, the outcomes would have regarded fairly completely different.”
Reasonably than a wholesale takedown of Democrats, the outcome appeared very a lot a rejection of President Biden and, by extension, his hasty substitute on the poll, Vice President Kamala Harris.
What does that imply going forth?
For those who’re asking whether or not Democrats will win management of the Home or Senate…
Sure?!?
…I haven’t a clue.
Democrats want to realize three seats to take management of the Home and each historical past and Trump’s sagging approval rankings — particularly as pertains to the economic system — augur nicely for his or her probabilities. The president’s get together has misplaced Home seats in 20 of the final 22 midterm elections and, in response to Inside Elections, the fewest variety of seats that flipped was 4.
That’s why I assumed Proposition 50, which units out to all however decapitate California Republicans in Congress, was a foul and pointless transfer, successfully disenfranchising thousands and thousands of non-Democratic voters.
An appeals court docket final week tossed out a Republican gerrymander in Texas, placing Democrats in a good stronger place, although the authorized wrangling is much from over. The Supreme Courtroom briefly blocked the choice, pending evaluation. And nonetheless to return is a excessive court docket ruling that would intestine the Voting Rights Act and yield Republicans a dozen or extra Home seats nationwide.
So the struggle for management is much from determined.
As for the Senate, Republicans stand a a lot better probability of conserving management, given how the seats contested in 2026 are positioned on largely favorable GOP terrain.
However till the votes are counted, no person is aware of what is going to occur. That’s the factor about elections: they assist maintain wiseacres like me trustworthy.
