Australia’s Population Milestone and Political Divide
Australia’s population has now exceeded 28 million people for the first time in its history, a significant demographic shift primarily fueled by overseas migration. New figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) indicate a population growth of 412,500 individuals in the year concluding December 31, 2025. Net overseas migration (NOM) was the dominant contributor, accounting for 301,000 of this increase, representing nearly three-quarters of the total growth. The remaining 111,500 individuals were added through natural population increase.
Migration Trends and Government Claims
While the latest NOM figure shows a decrease of approximately 9 percent compared to the previous year and a substantial drop of over 45 percent from its post-Covid peak in 2023, the overall trend remains historically high. Data reveals that migration has consistently remained above 300,000 for 14 consecutive quarters, spanning more than three and a half years, and has largely stabilized within a narrow range. Over the past four quarters, annual NOM figures have been recorded at 309,000, 302,000, 309,000, and most recently, 301,000.
For the first half of the 2025-26 financial year, NOM stands at 145,000, which is less than half of the full-year Budget forecast of 295,000. This decline has been attributed to changes across various visa categories, with NOM from temporary visa holders experiencing a 10 percent reduction over the past year. International student migration has also seen a 10 percent decrease, returning to pre-pandemic levels, while visitor migration continues to decline due to more stringent visa regulations.
Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke stated on Thursday that these figures demonstrate the effectiveness of the government’s migration strategy. “As the data shows, we are bringing migration down with a sensible, measured approach to provide the skilled workers Australia needs, while addressing exploitation and rorts,” he said. “The numbers of temporary visa holders and international students also continue to fall, as we prioritise the skills that we need to care for our sick and elderly and build homes.”
Opposition’s Counterarguments on Migration Levels
Conversely, the opposition contends that migration levels remain excessively high, placing undue pressure on Australia’s housing supply and infrastructure. Shadow Immigration Minister Senator Jonno Duniam argued that the latest ABS figures contradict the government’s assertions. “Labor keeps trying to tell Australians that the migration numbers are coming down, but the latest ABS figures again portray a very different story,” he stated. “A NOM figure of 301,000 is still far too high – particularly at a time when Australians are struggling to find a home, rents remain under extreme pressure and public infrastructure and services are badly stretched.”
Senator Duniam emphasized that the current figures suggest a sustained trend rather than a temporary surge. “This is not a one-off number. Net overseas migration has now remained above 300,000 for 14 straight quarters – in other words, for three-and-a-half years,” he noted. He also criticized the government’s reliance on the 2023 peak for comparison, stating, “Labor cannot keep pretending that things are on the right path, particularly by citing the ridiculous statistic that they’ve brought the numbers down by around 45 per cent from the unprecedented peaks on their watch in 2023. The truth is that migration remains at levels never seen under the former Coalition government, and that these elevated levels have now been sustained for 14 straight quarters.”
