Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) secures a commanding victory in the parliamentary election, claiming 209 seats in the 350-member parliament for a two-thirds majority. This outcome delivers the country’s first truly competitive vote in nearly two decades, ending the Sheikh Hasina era and sparking a potential overhaul in regional alliances involving India, Pakistan, and China.
The BNP-led coalition dominates, while the Jamaat-e-Islami alliance takes 74 seats. Prime ministers from India and Pakistan quickly congratulate 60-year-old Tarique Rahman, the party’s leader poised to become prime minister.
Resetting Ties with India?
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi extends congratulations via X, followed by a phone call. “India will continue to stand in support of a democratic, progressive and inclusive Bangladesh,” Modi posts, highlighting Rahman’s leadership and shared historical ties. He reaffirms commitment to peace and prosperity for both nations.
Relations soured after Hasina’s 2024 ouster amid mass protests, leading to her exile in India and Dhaka’s death sentence demand, which New Delhi rejects. Tensions include trade barriers, water-sharing disputes like Teesta, border incidents, and a trade imbalance favoring India.
Delwar Hossain, professor of international relations at the University of Dhaka, calls this a turning point for bilateral ties. “The new government may bring about a policy framework with clarity of purpose and effective implementation strategies,” Hossain states. “The continuing India-Pakistan hostility and China-India rivalry may remain critical determinants of Bangladesh’s foreign policy moves.”
India’s Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar attends Khaleda Zia’s funeral earlier this year, signaling adaptation. Asif Bin Ali, geopolitical analyst at Georgia State University, predicts a pragmatic reset emphasizing mutual respect and non-interference. “I expect a more cautious middle position that stresses mutual respect, reciprocal sovereignty and noninterference,” Ali says.
Saleh Shahriar of North South University notes differences in Rahman’s BNP approach compared to past leadership.
Pakistan Gains Momentum
Pakistan views the BNP win as a chance to deepen ties. Under interim leader Muhammad Yunus, direct flights resume, visas ease, and high-level exchanges occur. Former Pakistani foreign secretary Salman Bashir welcomes the shift. “Bangladesh does not have to balance its relations with India and Pakistan,” Bashir asserts. “Ties with Pakistan have improved. Pakistan should persist with its present policy.”
Pakistan’s military discusses JF-17 jet sales. Bashir envisions closer Bangladesh-Pakistan-China defense cooperation, reversing India’s regional dominance.
Bin Ali cautions that geography keeps India central, while Praveen Donthi of the International Crisis Group expects balanced outreach. Shahab Enam Khan of the Bangladesh Center for Indo-Pacific Affairs anticipates transactional ties benefiting Pakistan as a neighbor.
China Relations Strengthen Further
China, a key Hasina partner via Belt and Road projects, maintains broad influence. The interim government secures $2.1 billion in investments and visits Beijing. The Chinese embassy congratulates BNP, pledging new chapters in ties.
Hossain predicts deeper engagement, drawing from BNP’s past. Bin Ali advises focusing Chinese projects on economics, avoiding great-power rivalries, and setting clear priorities.
Balancing Regional Powers
Rahman faces intense competition in the Bay of Bengal. BNP’s manifesto prioritizes national sovereignty. Shahriar describes the challenge of engaging China, Pakistan, Myanmar, and others.
Khan urges pragmatic diplomacy. Donthi foresees incremental balancing between India and China, plus U.S. engagement and minimal Pakistan normalization, evolving foreign policy gradually.
