Health Minister Bridget Archer is set to serve as Acting Premier of Tasmania for approximately one week, beginning tomorrow, while Premier Jeremy Rockliff and Deputy Premier Guy Barnett are out of the state. This temporary appointment, announced with minimal fanfare, is being viewed by political observers as a significant, albeit brief, trial run for Archer as a potential successor to Rockliff.
Archer’s Political Trajectory
Archer’s elevation, even for a short duration, is notable given her relatively recent entry into state politics. She was elected to the Tasmanian Parliament less than a year ago, following an unexpected loss of her federal seat. During her tenure in federal parliament, Archer gained national recognition for her independent stance, frequently crossing the floor on issues such as religious discrimination, integrity, and climate change – a freedom afforded to her as a backbencher. This willingness to deviate from party lines, even on 28 occasions, defined her federal career.
In her current role as a senior minister in the Rockliff government, Archer has been tasked with addressing the state’s challenging health system. The portfolio, often described as a ‘poisoned chalice’ in politics, has made her a frequent target during parliamentary questioning, particularly concerning patient care and ambulance response times. She has also been compelled to defend the government’s controversial decision to implement $700 million in efficiencies across the health system over four years, a move debated by opposing parties over its classification as ‘cuts’.
Despite the demands of ministerial office, Archer recently articulated her commitment to her principles in parliament, stating, “I have made an entire career of standing up for things that I believe in. In fact, I crossed the floor 28 times in Canberra on things I believe in, and I’ll stand up for my community every day.” She added, “You can bet your bottom dollar, if I’m not standing up and saying that now, it’s because I believe it. It’s because I believe that we need to make efficiencies to protect the wellbeing of future generations.”
Rockliff’s Endorsement and Party Dynamics
Premier Rockliff has openly expressed his admiration for Archer, aligning with her as a traditional ‘small l’ Liberal with a strong focus on social issues and a belief in limited government. Their shared stance on issues like the Voice referendum, where they defied the then-federal Liberal leader, highlights this alignment. Rockliff has previously indicated his support for Archer’s future in politics, publicly stating she would contest the Bass electorate.
The Premier’s public displays of support have not gone unnoticed. Months prior to a no-confidence motion, Rockliff appeared at a press conference flanked by Archer and close ally Minister Jo Palmer, rather than his deputy, suggesting a potential grooming process. However, Archer’s potential leadership aspirations face a complex internal party landscape. While Rockliff may favour her, the Tasmanian Liberal Party also includes influential conservative figures with significant parliamentary experience and leadership ambitions, such as Treasurer Eric Abetz, Deputy Premier Guy Barnett, Police Minister Felix Ellis, and former Deputy Premier Michael Ferguson. Some of these figures were reportedly considering their options during Rockliff’s first no-confidence challenge.
Furthermore, historical tensions exist, with reports of a past attempt by fellow minister Gavin Pearce to influence federal party decisions regarding Archer’s pre-selection. The path to leadership for any potential female premier in Tasmania, following the challenging federal Liberal experience, could prove to be a difficult one.
Strategic Considerations for Succession
Archer’s potential path to leadership is bolstered by two key factors. Firstly, her strong electoral performance in Bass, where she topped the poll, significantly outperforming other Liberal candidates. Secondly, Rockliff may see her as the most viable candidate to garner support from the progressive crossbench and Greens, a crucial element for maintaining government stability.
The current Liberal government holds power precariously, relying on the tolerance of the crossbench and the Greens, who view them as the lesser of two evils compared to Labor. However, under new leadership, Labor has shown increased willingness to collaborate with the Greens, potentially altering the political dynamics. While the Liberals are not natural allies with these groups, their current tolerance is partly attributed to Premier Rockliff’s personal standing. His approach to social issues and perceived decency command respect, even amidst concerns raised by the Greens regarding integrity.
In contrast, potential leaders like Eric Abetz or Felix Ellis might be less palatable to the Greens and independent MPs. Bridget Archer, however, could represent a more acceptable option, potentially offering the Liberals their best chance to retain power and prevent the opposition from forming government with crossbench support. This situation presents an ironic twist, as Labor’s earlier actions may have inadvertently strengthened the Liberals’ long-term prospects.
Rockliff’s Vision for Moderate Leadership
The Liberal Party’s long-term success in Tasmania has been significantly influenced by its moderate wing. It is understood that former Premier Peter Gutwein ensured Jeremy Rockliff, his moderate deputy, was prepared for leadership. Rockliff himself has seemingly sought a successor who mirrors his own political values, and until now, no obvious candidate has emerged who fits this profile.
After nearly a quarter of a century in politics, facing numerous elections, a no-confidence vote, and recent ministerial resignations, it is plausible that Rockliff is contemplating his eventual departure. The emergence of Archer as a potential successor could alleviate pressure on him, though it would undoubtedly place significant demands on her. Archer has cultivated a reputation as a forthright communicator with strong values and a progressive social outlook, earning her support across various political factions. The ultimate question remains whether her own party will embrace her leadership, even if the broader electorate might be receptive.
