Pauline Hanson, leader of One Nation, has urged her candidate in the Secret Harbour by-election, Luke Herdegen, to exert maximum effort on the final day of campaigning. This push comes as the party aims to achieve a historic win in Western Australia, potentially securing its first seat in the state’s Legislative Assembly.
Intense Campaign Push in Secret Harbour
In a message sent to Mr. Herdegen on Friday, Senator Hanson expressed pride in his dedication throughout the campaign, regardless of the eventual outcome. “From day one you’ve committed every waking hour to this Secret Harbour campaign and I can’t be prouder,” Senator Hanson stated. She added that Mr. Herdegen’s efforts had successfully put the major parties, Labor and the Liberals, “on notice.” Senator Hanson conveyed that the entire One Nation team on the east coast was supporting his candidacy.
As voting commenced across Secret Harbour’s nine polling stations, One Nation maintained an optimistic outlook regarding their chances of an upset victory in what is traditionally a safe Labor seat. Senator Hanson also spoke with Mr. Herdegen by phone on Saturday morning, reinforcing her message. “One Nation is targeting Labor-held seats hard and fast,” she commented. While Senator Hanson would not be attending the party’s election night function in Karnup, she delivered a final rallying cry to her 39-year-old candidate: “Go hard on the final day and I’ll give you a call on the night.” She concluded by expressing a wish to be present to celebrate a potential victory.
The Political Landscape in Secret Harbour
The Secret Harbour electorate, located south of Rockingham, has historically been a stronghold for the Labor Party, holding a margin of almost 12 percent. The retirement of long-serving Labor member and minister Paul Papalia created an opening, which One Nation, under Pauline Hanson’s leadership, has sought to exploit. This by-election represents what is considered Hanson’s most significant opportunity to gain a seat in the WA Parliament’s lower house.
Several factors have contributed to the challenging environment for Labor in this by-election. National concerns, such as the escalating cost of living and the ongoing housing crisis – issues that One Nation attributes partly to immigration levels – have resonated with voters. The perceived unpopularity of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has also been cited as a factor potentially impacting WA Labor’s prospects.
Furthermore, campaign missteps by the Labor campaign have reportedly played into One Nation’s hands. An instance where the Labor candidate, Georgia Tree, was allegedly prevented from speaking at an announcement regarding a new train station in Karnup has been highlighted as a point of contention.
Candidate Residency and Voter Concerns
A notable aspect of the campaign has been the residency of the main candidates. Neither the One Nation candidate, Luke Herdegen, nor the Liberal candidate, Mr. Robertson, reside within the Secret Harbour electorate. Mr. Herdegen and Mr. Robertson both live in the nearby Rockingham area, while Ms. Tree resides in Perth. Labor sources have acknowledged that Ms. Tree’s Perth residency may have negatively affected their campaign, despite her having spent her formative years in Warnbro, within the broader region.
Mr. Herdegen, a 39-year-old gym owner, expressed confidence in One Nation’s ability to win the seat based on primary votes. This optimism persists despite Labor securing 46.6 percent of first preferences in the March 2025 state election, with One Nation receiving only 8.4 percent of the primary vote at that time. The political climate has since shifted, with One Nation experiencing increased support nationally, including wins in South Australia and the federal seat of Farrer.
Campaign Strategies and Voter Engagement
WA Labor has invested heavily in retaining the Secret Harbour seat, reportedly spending an unprecedented $400,000 on the by-election campaign. Despite this significant expenditure, some Labor sources indicated a sense of apprehension, hoping for a narrow victory while bracing for a potential loss.
The Secret Harbour electorate encompasses 36,407 eligible voters. A substantial portion, 45 percent, had already cast their ballots through early and postal voting prior to election day. The counting process is expected to be lengthy due to the large number of candidates – 16 in total – on the ballot paper. The WA Electoral Commission (WAEC) anticipates providing an indicative result on election night, but a final declaration will not be made until after September 3, pending the full count of all postal votes.
One Nation’s Confidence and Key Issues
Rod Caddies, the leader of One Nation in WA and a Member of the Legislative Council, conveyed the party’s confidence in securing a victory, while emphasizing a non-arrogant approach. “We are confident, but we don’t want to be arrogant about it,” Mr. Caddies stated. “We are not taking it for granted. We will work all day long to try and convince people we are the best choice.”
Mr. Caddies highlighted that federal issues dominated conversations with voters throughout the campaign. “Mainly it has been cost of living and housing — a concern about the ability of people to buy a house,” he explained. “A rise in immigration has been an issue, with people saying we are letting a lot of people into Australia, which is putting pressure on housing. Homelessness in areas like Rockingham has been raised numerous times, people saying that should not be happening in Australia.”
The campaign saw visits from prominent figures, including Senator Hanson and federal Liberal leader Angus Taylor. Notably, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese did not visit the electorate during his three-day stay in Perth, despite attending high-priced fundraising events. Mr. Caddies suggested that Mr. Albanese’s perceived unpopularity and a sense of broken promises, particularly regarding negative gearing and capital gains tax changes, had influenced voter sentiment, leading to a “You can’t trust Labor” sentiment. Voters also expressed dissatisfaction with state issues, citing a perceived broken promise by Premier Roger Cook’s government regarding the Karnup Train Station, which was eventually committed to during the campaign.
Conclusion
As the Secret Harbour by-election concludes its final day of campaigning, One Nation, buoyed by Pauline Hanson’s encouragement and a focus on key voter concerns like cost of living and housing, is positioned to challenge Labor’s traditional hold on the seat. The outcome hinges on voter turnout and the effectiveness of each party’s campaign in a landscape marked by shifting political allegiances and significant national issues.
