Voters in Western Australia’s Secret Harbour electorate will cast their ballots this Saturday in a significant state by-election, serving as a crucial test for the Labor party’s ability to retain a traditionally safe seat against a resurgent One Nation. The vacancy arose following the resignation of long-serving Labor Member of Parliament Paul Papalia in July, who cited a family health emergency as the reason for his departure after nearly two decades in politics, much of it as a minister.
The Stakes in Secret Harbour
While the Secret Harbour area has historically been a secure seat for Labor, a notable increase in One Nation’s support in recent times has introduced an element of uncertainty. A victory for One Nation in this by-election would represent a significant shift, marking the first time the populist party has captured a Labor stronghold. Such an outcome would undoubtedly reverberate nationally, potentially influencing strategies and perceptions ahead of future federal elections.
One Nation has signaled its ambition to contest every seat at the next federal election and is actively targeting Labor-held territory, particularly in Western Australia. The party has already achieved notable successes this year, including winning a seat previously held by former Liberal leader Sussan Ley and securing several seats in South Australia’s state election. Furthermore, One Nation is setting its sights on unseating Liberal frontbencher Andrew Hastie in the federal electorate of Canning, which partially overlaps with Secret Harbour.
Mr. Hastie has been a vocal critic of One Nation and its leader, Pauline Hanson. He recently emphasized the importance of a strong campaign by his state Liberal colleagues, pointing to positive swings towards the Liberal Party in both state and federal elections in his electorate. He noted that he had even managed to flip long-standing Labor-voting booths in the past, suggesting a potential for the Liberal Party to gain ground if they campaign effectively.
The campaign against Mr. Hastie by One Nation has reportedly involved intense personal attacks, leading to enhanced security measures at his home and electorate office. Senator Hanson has publicly criticized Mr. Hastie’s decision to testify in a war crimes case involving Ben Roberts-Smith, a recipient of the Victoria Cross. Senator Hanson has expressed admiration for Mr. Roberts-Smith, referring to him as a “war hero.”
Key Candidates and Their Platforms
Labor has selected Georgia Tree as its candidate, aiming to retain the seat. Ms. Tree, a former advisor to federal resources minister Madeleine King and with experience in corporate relations for energy company Woodside, is campaigning on a platform of continuity. She emphasizes building upon the legacy of Paul Papalia and aligning with the policies of the current Labor state government led by Premier Roger Cook. Drawing on her working-class background, having lost her mother to cancer at a young age and being raised by a single father, Ms. Tree highlights her commitment to addressing cost of living pressures, improving schools, expanding TAFE access, and strengthening Medicare and health services, referencing her own family’s experience with the financial burden of medical treatment.
The Liberal opposition has nominated Rockingham City Councillor and real estate agent Ryan Robertson. A former Navy submariner, Mr. Robertson presents himself as a champion for small businesses and veterans. He asserts that his experience as a councillor has provided him with a clear understanding of the electorate’s challenges, particularly concerning rapid population growth outpacing infrastructure development in areas like roads, housing, and health services. He acknowledges the widespread frustration within the community regarding these issues.
One Nation’s candidate, Luke Herdegen, is widely considered the primary challenger to Labor. A local business owner, Mr. Herdegen’s background differs significantly from his Labor and Liberal counterparts. Originally from Newcastle, New South Wales, he worked in various blue-collar roles before settling in Western Australia and becoming a franchisee for Anytime Fitness in Rockingham. Past social media posts revealed a history of cocaine use, an issue that surfaced during an early media appearance with Senator Hanson. Mr. Herdegen has framed this past experience as a source of inspiration for others seeking healthier lives and has stated that voters in Secret Harbour are more concerned with current issues than past personal matters. His campaign focuses on advocating for a “fair go,” a stable society, rewarding hard work, and supporting those in need.
Major Issues Shaping the Campaign
The Secret Harbour by-election is being contested against a backdrop of national concerns that resonate deeply within the electorate. As an outer metropolitan growth corridor, Secret Harbour and surrounding areas like Port Kennedy and Lakelands are experiencing significant pressure on young families facing mortgage stress and rising rents. Tradies are contending with high fuel costs, and the rapid pace of population growth is straining local infrastructure development.
The Labor government has responded to a substantial swing against it in Secret Harbour during the previous state election by making significant funding commitments for community facilities, road upgrades, and other infrastructure projects in the lead-up to this by-election. Despite these efforts, the political landscape remains dynamic.
Polling and Electoral Outlook
Recent polling suggests that while Labor maintains a lead, its primary vote has remained relatively stable. A DemosAU poll indicated Labor’s primary vote at 33 percent, unchanged from June. In contrast, the Liberal Party saw a two-point decrease, while One Nation gained three points, placing them in a virtual tie at 21 percent each. On a two-party preferred basis, Labor held a lead of 54 percent to 46 percent. However, a significant portion of voters, 45 percent, expressed the view that Western Australia is heading in the wrong direction, an increase from previous surveys. The state government also experienced a five percent rise in voter perception of its poor performance on housing and cost of living issues.
According to George Hasanakos, head of research at DemosAU, the heightened attention on One Nation in the Secret Harbour by-election appears to be impacting the Liberal Party more than Labor, with the Liberals experiencing a decline in their primary vote. Hasanakos noted that statewide trends suggest a potential for a significant swing against Labor’s primary vote in Secret Harbour, with One Nation likely to outperform the Liberals. The ultimate outcome, he explained, will depend on the effectiveness of One Nation’s local campaign efforts and the flow of preferences from Liberal voters, other right-wing parties, and independent candidates.
This by-election is therefore poised to be a closely watched contest, reflecting broader political currents and the evolving allegiances of voters in Western Australia.
