In explaining the U.S. incursion into Venezuela to seize President Nicolás Maduro, President Trump accused Maduro and his spouse of conducting a “marketing campaign of lethal narco-terrorism in opposition to the USA and its residents,” and Maduro of being “the kingpin of an unlimited felony community liable for trafficking colossal quantities of lethal and illicit medication into the USA.”
“A whole bunch of 1000’s — over time — of Individuals died due to him,” Trump stated hours after U.S. particular forces dragged Maduro from his bed room throughout a raid that killed greater than 50 Venezuelan and Cuban navy and safety forces.
Specialists in regional narcotics trafficking stated Trump was clearly making an attempt to justify the U.S. deposing a sitting head of state by arguing that Maduro was not only a corrupt international chief harming his personal nation but in addition a serious participant within the sweeping epidemic of overdoses that has devastated American communities.
Additionally they stated they’re extremely suspicious of these claims, which had been provided up with little proof and run counter to years of unbiased analysis into regional drug trafficking patterns. International locations akin to Mexico and Colombia play a lot bigger roles, and fentanyl — not the cocaine Maduro is charged with trafficking — causes the overwhelming majority of American deaths, the analysis reveals.
Maduro’s indictment spells out some overt felony acts allegedly dedicated by him, together with promoting diplomatic passwords to identified drug traffickers so they might keep away from navy and legislation enforcement scrutiny in Venezuela.
(Jacquelyn Martin / Related Press)
It alleges different crimes in broad strokes, akin to Maduro and his spouse allegedly ordering “kidnappings, beatings, and murders” in opposition to individuals who “undermined their drug trafficking operation.”
Nevertheless, Trump’s claims in regards to the scope and influence of Maduro’s alleged actions go far past what the indictment particulars, consultants stated.
“It’s very arduous to answer the extent of bulls— that’s being promoted by this administration, as a result of there’s no proof given in anyway, and it goes in opposition to what we expect we all know as specialists,” stated Paul Gootenberg, a professor emeritus of historical past and sociology at Stony Brook College who has lengthy studied the cocaine commerce. “All of it goes in opposition to what we expect we all know.”
“President Trump’s declare that a whole lot of 1000’s of Individuals have died as a result of drug trafficking linked to Maduro is inaccurate,” stated Philip Berry, a former United Kingdom counter-narcotics official and a visiting senior lecturer on the Centre for Defence Research at King’s School London.
“[F]entanyl, not cocaine, has been liable for most drug-related deaths within the U.S. over the previous decade,” he stated.
Jorja Leap, a social welfare professor and govt director of the UCLA Social Justice Analysis Partnership who has spent years interviewing gang members and drug sellers within the L.A. area, stated Trump’s hyper-focus on Maduro, Venezuela and the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua as driving forces inside the U.S. drug commerce not solely belies actuality but in addition belittles the work of researchers who know higher.
“Apart from making it a political difficulty, that is disrespecting the work of researchers, social activists, neighborhood organizers and legislation enforcement who’ve labored on this drawback on the bottom and perceive each facet of it,” Leap stated. “That is political theater.”
Venezuela’s position
The U.S. State Division’s 2024 Worldwide Narcotics Technique Report known as Venezuela “a serious transit nation for cocaine shipments through aerial, terrestrial, and maritime routes,” with a lot of the medication originating in Colombia and passing by means of different Central American nations or Caribbean islands on their solution to the U.S.
Federal officers stand guard outdoors the Metropolitan Detention Heart.
(Leonardo Munoz / AFP through Getty Photographs)
Nevertheless, the identical report stated current estimates put the quantity of cocaine trafficked by means of Venezuela at about 200 to 250 metric tons per yr, or “roughly 10 to 13 p.c of estimated international manufacturing.” Based on the United Nations 2025 World Drug Report, most cocaine from Colombia is as a substitute trafficked “alongside the Pacific Coast northward,” together with by means of Ecuador.
The identical report and others clarify Venezuela doesn’t play a considerable position in fentanyl manufacturing or trafficking.
The State Division’s 2024 report stated Mexico was “the only real important supply of illicit fentanyl … considerably affecting” the U.S., and the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration’s 2025 Nationwide Drug Risk Evaluation stated Mexican organizations “dominate fentanyl transportation into and thru the USA.”
The Trump administration urged Venezuela has performed a bigger position in cocaine manufacturing and transport in recent times beneath Maduro, who they allege has partnered with main trafficking organizations in Venezuela, Colombia and Mexico.
Maduro pleaded not responsible at an arraignment in Manhattan federal courtroom this week, saying he was “kidnapped” by the U.S.
Whereas many consultants and different political observers acknowledge Maduro’s corruption and consider he has profited from drug trafficking, they query the Trump administration’s characterization of his actions as a “narco-terrorist” assault on the U.S.
Former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), the Trump ally turned foe who this week stepped down from her Home seat, condemned the raid as extra about controlling Venezuela’s oil than dismantling the drug commerce, partially by noting that far better volumes of a lot deadlier medication arrive to the U.S. from Mexico.
“If it was about medication killing Individuals, they might be bombing Mexican cartels,” Greene posted.
The Trump administration pushed again in opposition to such arguments, at the same time as Trump has threatened different nations within the area.
U.S. Drug Enforcement Administrator Terry Cole stated on Fox Information that “at a low estimate,” 100 tons of cocaine have been produced and shipped to the U.S. by teams working with Maduro.
Professional enter
Gootenberg stated there’s little doubt that some Colombian cocaine crosses the border into Venezuela, however that a lot of it goes onward to Europe and rising markets in Brazil and Asia, and there’s no proof massive quantities attain the U.S.
“The entire thing is a fiction, and I do consider they know that,” he stated of the Trump administration.
Berry stated Venezuela is “a transit nation for cocaine” however “a comparatively minor participant within the worldwide drug commerce” total, with solely a “small portion” of the cocaine that passes by means of it reaching the U.S.
Each additionally questioned the Trump administration labeling Maduro’s authorities a “narco-terrorism” regime. Gootenberg stated the time period arose a long time in the past to explain governments whose nationwide revenues had been considerably linked to drug proceeds, akin to Bolivia within the Nineteen Eighties, but it surely was at all times a “propagandistic thought” and had gone “defunct” as fashionable governments, together with Venezuela’s, diversified their economies.
The Trump administration’s transfer to revive the time period comes as no shock given “the way in which they choose up atavistic labels that they suppose will likely be helpful, like ‘Make America Nice Once more,’” Gootenberg stated. However “there’s no there there.”
Berry stated use of the time period “narco-terrorism” has oversimplified the “various and context-specific connections” between the drug trade and international terrorism, and in consequence “led to the conflation of counter-narcotics and counter-terrorism efforts, steadily leading to hyper-militarised and ineffective coverage responses.”
Gootenberg stated Maduro was a corrupt authoritarian who stole an election and positively had data of drug trafficking by means of his nation, however the notion he’d in some way develop into a “mastermind” with leverage over transnational drug organizations is far-fetched.
A number of consultants stated they doubted his seize would have a large impact on the U.S. drug commerce.
“Negligible. Marginal. No matter phrase you wish to use to point probably the most minor of impacts,” stated Leap, of UCLA.
The Sinaloa Cartel — certainly one of Maduro’s alleged companions, in response to his indictment — is a serious participant in Southern California’s drug commerce, with the Mexican Mafia serving as intermediary between the cartel and native drug gangs, Leap stated. However “if anybody tries to attach this to what’s taking place now in Venezuela, they don’t perceive the character of drug distribution, avenue gangs, the Mexican Mafia, every part that goes on in Southern California. There isn’t a connection.”
Berry stated within the wake of Maduro’s seize, “quite a few state and nonstate actors concerned within the unlawful narcotics commerce stay unaffected.”
