American defense officials are developing contingency plans to target senior Iranian military figures, including Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander Ahmad Vahidi, should the current ceasefire in the Strait of Hormuz collapse.
Focus on Strait of Hormuz Threats
These plans center on Iran’s military assets near the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway handling one-fifth of global oil and gas exports. Strategies include dynamic targeting of fast attack boats, minelaying vessels, and other asymmetric maritime threats in the southern Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. Such capabilities enable Iran to disrupt international shipping and energy supplies.
Officials also consider strikes on infrastructure, energy facilities, and key regime obstructionists. Vahidi, a member of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, which currently oversees national affairs, features prominently in these discussions.
Iran’s Leadership Under Pressure
The Supreme National Security Council has taken charge amid Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s absence from public view, following injuries from recent US-Israeli airstrikes. Key council members include parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, serving as chief negotiator with Washington; Saeed Jalili, a hardline representative of the supreme leader; President Masoud Pezeshkian, who chairs the council; and secretary Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr.
Escalation Risks and Challenges
Military planners warn that renewed strikes may not swiftly restore safe shipping passage. One official noted: “Unless you can unequivocally prove that 100 percent of Iran’s military capability is destroyed or achieve near certainty of mitigating risks with US capabilities, it depends on how much risk the leadership accepts to push ships through the strait.”
Targeting infrastructure raises concerns of broader conflict escalation.
Trump Highlights Iranian Divisions
President Donald Trump asserts Iran’s leadership faces deep divisions after US-Israeli operations eliminated several top figures, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. In a social media post, Trump stated: “Iran is having a very hard time figuring out who their leader is! They just don’t know! The infighting is between the ‘Hardliners,’ who have been losing BADLY on the battlefield, and the ‘Moderates,’ who are not very moderate at all (but gaining respect!), is CRAZY!”
In a recent interview, he added: “They’re all messed up. They have no idea who their leader is. You know, we took out, really, three levels of leaders. And everybody that was even close behind him. So they have a hard time figuring out who the hell can speak for the country. They just don’t know.”
Temporary Ceasefire and Blockade
Trump extended the initial two-week ceasefire, but officials emphasize its temporary nature, with US forces prepared to act. Iran has refused to reopen the Strait, closed to international shipping after initial strikes.
Since April 13, the US enforces a blockade of Iranian ports, redirecting at least 33 vessels. Pentagon forces intercepted three ships, including two in the Indian Ocean 2,000 miles from the Persian Gulf. The latest involved boarding a sanctioned stateless vessel carrying Iranian oil.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt highlighted the blockade’s impact: “We are completely strangling their [Iran’s] economy through this blockade. They are losing $500 million a day. Kharg Island is completely full, they can’t move oil in or out, they can’t even pay their own people as a result of the economic leverage that President Trump has inflicted on them.” She added: “Not only have they been significantly weakened and obliterated militarily, but they are losing economically and financially every single moment that passes with this blockade.”
